The NFL is a sports league that depends heavily on a few key metrics and player/team statistics when it comes to analysis. More so than in other sports, using these metrics is a sure fire way to make accurate NFL predictions, and thus, more accurate and profitable bets. Most bettors know that statistical analysis is hugely important to be a profitable bettor and nowhere else does this matter more than in the NFL betting industry.
But what are these key metrics? And which ones are the most important to focus on to make big winnings? We’ve covered important stats and numbers to focus on if you want to start refining your bets and making specific profits over a longer period of time.
Let’s get started.
Early Pass Down Success Rate
The early pass-down success rate has been shown to be a key indicator or predictor of which team will perform over the long term during an NFL game. This metric measures exactly how successful a team is when it comes to getting first downs – which needs to be foundationally effective for any high-performing professional football team.
When using this metric you can easily determine which teams are more likely to have success in a game, which teams are steadily improving as a season moves forward, and which teams are likely to be struggling in matches against teams with a high early pass down success rate. Overall, this is a great statistic for making long-term predictions over the course of an NFL season.
Pressure Rate
Pressure in the NFL is a measurable number that can predict the success rate of many plays for a particular team. It makes perfect sense that when the pressure is high, a team is more likely to struggle to make a successful passing play. Additionally, the pressure rate on a team is a great metric to use when predicting and betting on future sacks.
This statistic is also useful when making underdog bets, especially if the underdog team has a quarterback who is shown to be successful in overcoming pressure when making long-yard passes. Teams with these types of players are more likely to subvert the outcome of a pressure prediction, making them a popular feature in NFL picks and safe underdog bets.
Explosive Play Rate
Finally, the explosive play rate metric is especially useful for NFL bettors as it measures both 20-yard passing plays as well as 10-yard rushing plays. Measuring these types of plays in any given NFL match for any chosen NFL team essentially provides bettors with the high-variance play components that predict success on the field.
If a team has historically shown to have good explosive play rate metrics, this means that they are difficult to defend against, and are more likely to be a high-scoring team. Knowing this can contribute heavily to the success of any bettor, experienced or green.
Historical trends and team matchups
When it comes to making profitable wagers in the NFL, historical trends and team matchups can play a significant role. Understanding past matchups between two teams and identifying any trends or streaks can give bettors valuable insight into how a game may play out.
One important factor to consider when looking at historical trends is the location of the game. Home-field advantage can have a significant impact on the outcome of a game, so it’s essential to look at how a team performs both at home and on the road. For example, if a team has a significant advantage when playing at home, they may be more likely to win if they are playing at home.
Another factor to consider when analyzing historical trends is the head-to-head record between the two teams. Some teams may have a history of dominating a particular opponent, while others may struggle against certain opponents. It’s also essential to look at the recent form of each team and any changes to the rosters or coaching staff.
Betting lines and over/under
Betting lines and over/under are important tools for making profitable wagers in NFL games. A betting line is a point spread that oddsmakers set to even out the betting action between two teams. The favorite team is given a negative point spread, while the underdog is given a positive point spread. For example, if the New England Patriots are listed as -6.5 favorites over the Miami Dolphins, they must win by at least 7 points for the bet to pay off. If the Dolphins lose by 6 points or fewer or win outright, the bet on the Dolphins would be a winner.
The over/under is another popular betting option in NFL games. This type of wager is based on the total number of points scored by both teams in a game. Oddsmakers set a line for the total number of points, and bettors must decide whether the final score will be over or under that number. For example, if the over/under line for a game is set at 45.5, a bet on the over would win if the final score is 46 points or higher, while a bet on the under would win if the final score is 45 points or lower.
Conclusion
In conclusion, when it comes to making profitable wagers in NFL games, it’s important to consider a range of factors including key offensive and defensive statistics, historical trends, team matchups, and betting lines and over/under. By analyzing these factors, bettors can make informed decisions that give them the best chance of winning. However, it’s important to always gamble responsibly and to never bet more than you can afford to lose. Remember to enjoy the game and use this knowledge to enhance your experience while betting responsibly.